Aussie Broadband expects 60% sales growth in next three years

　　If there's a group of telcos in the sweet spot, it's the small players making gains against larger competitors. That's the story for Aussie Broadband, Australia's fourth largest retail ISP, which is racking up some enviable growth numbers, with revenue up 51% CAGR and EBITDA 150% in the last four years.

　　Now it has set out some targets for the next three years – topline revenue up 60%, NBN market share to grow by three points and mobile connections to double. It is forecasting EBITDA of 133 million to 138 million Australian dollars (US$83-US$86 million) in 2025 – up from AU$120.5 million ($75.2 million) last year.

　　It has just had its best quarter in subscriber adds in three years, clocking an extra 24,300 customers – up 29% on the previous quarter. Total broadband connections have grown to 752,000, compared to 666,000 a year ago, the company said in an investor presentation Thursday. Its MVNO service has 211,000 subs.

　　Its pitch to investors is that the challenger segment in both broadband and mobile is growing faster than the sector as a whole.

　　MVNOs growing at 8%

　　The company has 8.1% of retail NBN connections and believes it can grow that to at least 11% by 2028. Meanwhile, at the top end of the market, Telstra's NBN share is steadily eroding, down from 49.6% in 2018 to 38.5% today.

　　Aussie Broadband is the biggest telco in the challenger segment, with a 39% share, and with the Australian challenger market as a whole around a fifth smaller than the global average, the company sees plenty of upside.

　　In mobile it's the MVNO players who are making market share gains – up from 9% to 11% in the past three years. Total MVNO growth is running at 8% compared to 1% to 2% for the wider sector.

　　Additionally, Aussie Broadband mobile revenue has grown 20% in the past year and its market share has more than doubled in the past three years. Its target is to double the number of MVNO subs by 2028.

　　The company this week also renewed its wholesale mobile contract with Optus for another five years. The deal provides full access to Optus’ mobile network, including premium 5G and fixed wireless.

　　It's an important win for Optus as it rebuilds after recent PR mishaps, and is also a vote of confidence in its nationwide network sharing deal with TPG Telecom.