Aging subsea cable fleet needs a $3B upgrade – report

　　The world's aging cable repair fleet threatens to undermine the coming boom in subsea cable construction, a new study has warned.

　　A report commissioned by the SubOptic Association estimates that the submarine capacity industry will need to spend $3 billion to upgrade its repair and maintenance fleet over the next 15 years.

　　The volume of deployed cable kilometers is forecast to grow 48% over the period, while annual repairs are likely to increase by 36%.

　　According to the study, 1.6 million kilometers in new cable systems will be put into the water between now and 2040, roughly twice as much as the volume being taken out of service.

　　At the same time, 47% of vessels in the global cable fleet will be nearing the end of their 40-year service lifespans by 2040.

　　This disconnect increases the potential for cable faults, in particular in areas such as the southwest and northwest Pacific that require a disproportionate number of repairs, caution the authors, consultancy firms TeleGeography and Infra-Analytics.

　　These factors "raise concerns about the adequacy of existing maintenance vessel capacity to maintain service quality."

　　Sporadic investment

　　"While existing models have largely served the sector well, the aging fleet, repair backlogs in high-usage regions, and need for investment in new vessels present formidable challenges," the report said.

　　It is not the first attempt to alert industry and government of how the humble repair ship could become a chokepoint for the global digital economy.

　　The report contrasts the massive long-term investments in cable systems with the uneven spending on cable ships.

　　"Sporadic investment in new vessels and the prevailing trend to introduce used or second-hand vessels to the maintenance fleet is a product of high capital costs, market uncertainty and maintenance agreement economics," it says.

　　The industry itself has doubts about the viability of current maintenance business models. Under the existing system the world is divided into geographic zones, with cables maintained either through consortium agreements or private arrangements exclusive to that zone.

　　But a survey found that 70% of cable maintenance firms and 61% of subsea cable owners question the ability of the current system to service the sector for the next 15 years. This uncertainty is exacerbated by rising geopolitical competition and security concerns, leading to greater government scrutiny and regulation.

　　The authors point out no single solution is available to solve all the commercial and operational issues: "Addressing gaps in global maintenance coverage, particularly in emerging regions like the Southern Pacific and Indian Ocean, will require innovative solutions."

　　But they urge flexibility and a willingness to allow traditional practices to evolve to accommodate stakeholder interests and shifting power dynamics. "Hybrid commercial models, asset-based competition, and collaborative tendering processes could offer viable alternatives to address the limitations of the current status quo," they said.